The results of assembly elections of 5 states were surprising in many ways, and gave a rude shock to BJP and nationalists. A nationalist revolution which started seem to have encountered a wall. The results were surprising why? In detail:
While we discuss the reason there needs to be a special mention of SC/ST act and Farm Loan Waiver Pre-poll Promise of Congress which has been the most important reason for the debacle of BJP governments in 3 states.
SC/ST act:
The Supreme Court’s ruling on against SC/ST act has come as a boon for Congress. Congress and other political parties were suffering from the lack of any major issue and the new found unity of Hindus which were all behind PM Modi irrespective of caste, creed and religion, got the lifeline from the ruling. The narrative created by opposition parties was that Government did not do enough prevent the ruling against act, and likes of Mayawati whose performance in Uttar Pradesh was dismal and saw her own vote bank shifted to BJP grabbed the chance and with Bhim Sena running an aggressive and offensive protest, other political parties joined the chorus and to prevent the Law and Order the act had to be passed in the Parliament. Dilemma for the BJP was that the ruling forced the division of Hindus who were united because of Modiji and Government one way or the other had to take a side which means angering of either of the community. This dilemma lead to inaction for sometime where government was shying of taking a side which angered the SC/ST community and under pressure when they took action to reverse the SC/ST act it angered the OBC/General castes.
So in a way BJP was on the receiving end from both sides. The voters all over India failed to grasp that it was opposition’s pressure and resolved to punish BJP for the same while completely forgotten that it was the opposition parties which forced BJP’s hand and the act would have been anyway passed if any other party was in power.
Union of Hindus was a fragile one and was not able to withstand the divisive agenda of Regional parties and Congress. Fragmented Hindus stood against their leader who had united them and contributed to the downfall.
Farm Loan waiver:
A white lie on which Rahul Gandhi back-tracked the day results were announced yet before the polls it was a lucrative offer for farmers who could be saved from paying their loans up to 2 lakhs. It was on various platforms was debunked by Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Amit Shah, Vasundhara Raje Scindia and PM Modi but farmers were hopeful that Congress so desperate to wrest power from BJP will not cheat them. 2 Lakhs Rupees is not a small amount and it was as if handing over the money itself and was cleverly played by Congress, and did work in the elections in their favor but they Forgot “काठ की हांडी बार-बार नहीं चढ़ती”, and that their backtracking on the issue will hurt them in 2019 assembly elections and will serve as negative feedback for the party and like they say “दूध का जला छाछ भी फूँक-फूँक कर पीता है”, farmers throughout the country will be cautioned after Congress governments cheated farmers in Karnataka, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh.
Rajasthan:
Opinion polls and ground narrative as professed by media and Congress leaders, presented a picture of clear majority to Congress and it was expected that Congress would easily cross the majority mark and will capture more than 110 seats easily with BJP less 50-60 seats. The factors they were taking in to account were as follows:
- Rajasthan Changes government every 5 years.
- People were not happy with the ministers selected by CM Vasundhara Raje. Not naming anyone but one of them was elected as MLA due to caste politics played by him. Another one didn’t care about his ministry.
- Huge anti-incumbency against Vasundhara Raje Government on the ground with Slogans like मोदी तेर स बैर कोनी, वसुंधरा तेरी खैर कोनी roughly translated to “Modi, we don’t have any issues with you, but Vasundhara, we won’t spare you!”
- The Gangster Anand Pal issue also got unnecessary attention. First a particular community, Jat, got angry with the Government for not taking action against him and then after his encounter another community, Rajput, became angry with it.
- Perception of arrogance of Chief Minister.
- Rajput Alienation from the State government due to Gangster Anand Pal Encounter, and Padmavat release.
- SC/ST act enacted by Government to reverse Supreme Court decision.
- Farm Loan Waiver pre-poll promise by Congress in their manifesto.
- Rs 10,000 monthly allowance to unemployed youth.
These were the most significant of reasons because of which people wanted a change in Rajasthan but then look at the positives for Rajasthan’s incumbent Raje Government:
- Government schemes at state levels like Bhamashah yojna, Mukhyamantri Rajshri Yojana, Jal Swavlamban etc were well received and appreciated.
- People of Rajasthan were contended with administration of the BJP government
- Center’s scheme like Ujjwala Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Saubhagya Scheme, Free toilet scheme under Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan were popular in Rajasthan.
- People were contend with Modi Government at the center and that Demonetization and GST were well directed schemes.
- Anti-national and family centric agenda of Congress.
So the major reason was that Congress was successful in creating an impression that Vasundhara Raje is not well connected to people of Rajasthan, she is not easily available and is arrogant. With Rajput’s joining the chorus after the encounter of Anand Pal gave fire to the feeble notion of anti-incumbency in people. Though Karni Sena and Rajput’s agreed that Padmavat did not offend their culture, tradition or their famed Rani, it was as if they did not quite forgive CM of Rajasthan. Congress being in opposition did not oppose vicious campaign of stopping the release of Padmavat all over country and Rajasthan and law and order was CM Vasundhara Raje’s headache and taking measures against miscreants was her job. Congress took benefit of the combined issue of Anand Pal’s encounter and Padmavat issue and created a narrative which fumed the Rajputs anger against the government. On Government’s part the lack of active communication with stakeholders and management at ground level became the reason of setback.
Well though it was thought of as a one sided match but the appearance of PM Modi on the stage brought the contest closer. Active communication BJP team with people at ground and Vasundhara Raje actually presenting her report card to people was a bold step but in the end it proved to be too late. Still Congress’s inability to attain majority mark by itself poses question if people had trust on Congress as a better alternative. In the election results it could be seen that large number of seats about 19-21 were in favour of independents and other party candidates and 4-5 to BSP seems that people were angry with Vasundhara Raje Government but not in entirely favour of Congress. So it is BJP CM’s defeat and not the defeat of BJP itself.
Doling out Rs 10,000 monthly allowance might also had unemployed youth tilting for Congress but then this was a promise people hardly had faith on.
Rajasthan is known for changing government in 5 years but here they have clearly shown that they do not trust Congress as an alternative and that anti-national agenda of Congress is not hidden from people it is in absence of another viable option and anger against BJP’s CM candidate fumed by Congress party that it has come in to power but that too with support of other parties. BJP lost to Congress by the difference of just 1.7 Lakh votes well such a small margin can never be referred to as anger against a party. Managing Rajasthan state with coalition government will be a challenge and when the support givers are the likes of Mayawati then it becomes a sure shot failure prospect.
Madhya Pradesh:
The most important reason for BJP’s defeat:
- SC/ST act enacted by Government to reverse Supreme Court decision.
- NOTA (‘माई का लाल’ comment by Shivraj Sing Chauhan)
- Farm Loan Waiver pre-poll promise by Congress in their manifesto.
- Rs 10,000 monthly allowance to unemployed youth.
- If not too strong yet Anti-incumbency was there.
MP’s result was actually BJP’s win in a sense BJP, after 15 years if the government would not have been doing great work the people would have been fatigued and results have been more decisive. The fact that Congress got 114 seats with 40.9 percent vote share while the BJP won 109 seats with 41 per cent vote share – the losing party got 0.1 percentage point more than the winning one and there was a nail bitter in MP was because people were not considering Congress as a good alternative in MP.
Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s ‘माई का लाल’ comment was the reason why people not belonging to SC/ST community kept away from voting for BJP but did not want to vote for Congress too and hence nearly 1.5 % of BJP voters opted for NOTA which actually tilted the nail bitter in favor of Congress.
Farm Loan waiver was a big lollipop which Rahul Gandhi snatched even before the 10 days within which it was to be delivered to the distressed farmers. How this poll promise was a prime factor in BJP’s defeat in MP could be considered from the fact that MP’s farmers had stopped repayment of the loan as reported by banks in the hope that they will be waived. Farm loan waiver is actually better than paid votes as the promise needs to be fulfilled only after the win and that too not from the candidates own pocket but from treasury, and it worked well.
Doling out Rs 10,000 monthly allowance might also had unemployed youth tilting for Congress but then this was a promise people hardly had faith on.
In absence of above two factor Congress would have been lagging by at least 4% vote share and conclusive shift in this much vote share in favour of BJP would have given them at least 130 seats which would be more than sufficient to form government for another term and ruin the Congress’s any hope of regaining Government in MP. There can be many more reasons of loss but I feel, Shivraj Singh Chauhan was one of the most polite Chief Ministers. Same as Raman Singh, he too was doing his work silently. Public should have elected him again as he took care of the state as his child. He respects women highly and addresses the as his sisters. That’s why he is fondly called Mama Ji.
Chattisgarh:
Credits: Hindustan Times
BJP’s defeat and decisive victory of Congress in Chattisgarh seems the clear case of fatigue rather than anti-incumbency.
Major factors were:
- Fatigue
- Experimentation with new government.
- Farm Loan Waiver pre-poll promise by Congress in their manifesto.
- Rs 10,000 monthly allowance to unemployed youth.
- Tri-Cornered battle.
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The state is also affected by Naxalism, and they always have soft corner for Congress.
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Depleting underground water, which in turn might have impacted the agrarian situation.
Fatigue with the same government seems the prime reason for such a decisive mandate an had been observed when the long running Governments like Bengal were dislodged.
Ajit Jogi forming another party and contesting with BJP formed a tri-cornered contest which dented BJP’s vote where people against Congress got another front to vote for. In case of fatigue with Government such Scenario does come in to play .
The vote share depletion of government is not in direct proportion to loss of seats which shows that dispersion of votes favoring BJP and AJit Jogi’s third front to people to vote who did not want to vote for Congress and wanted to experiment with new.
One thing can be a setting behind the doors among the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), Ajit Jogi (former and first CM of Chhattisgarh) and Congress. Although Ajit Jogi fought the elections on Chhattisgarh Janata Congress (a political party founded by him) seat, he didn’t do much campaigning on other seats. The same was with the BSP. People might have been misled by their no alliance in open.
It would have been a very close contest if only promise of freebies was not doled out by Congress but it would be an uphill task to come good on these promise before the Code of Conduct kicks in for 2019 assembly elections. Hence can convert in to suicidal move for Congress.
No one ever thought Chhattisgarh would go like this. The CM, Dr Raman Singh had done a lot of work for the state and common man. Dr. Raman Singh’s government had been very popular in Chhattisgarh as Mobile phone distribution and Rice scheme, because of which he was been named as “Chawal Baba”, the effect of his governance was so much that not even exit poll showed that under-current against his government was present. He had launched several schemes targeting the diverse public. Under his 3 consecutive tenure of 15 years and 4 days the state had developed a lot. It no more remained a backward state even though it was formed just 18 years ago. The state started growing at a faster pace under him. How can people vote out a popular, honest, hard working and dedicated CM? We can’t fathom the cause of Dr Raman SIngh’s loss. It can be one of topics of research for people who are pursuing psephology or political science. Not electing him might prove a fatal mistake of the public as he was working diligently and dedicatedly and never made any hallaboo.
Conclusion:
It can be said that these elections gave a ray of hope to Congress but the cost at which the close wins in MP and Rajasthan were manufactures could be the bigger rout of Congress at national level and next elections. If only Congress’s win has worked to divert the anti-incumbency of farmers from the Union Government to state Congress Government. More Vigilant and brought to toes BJP will be a stronger Contender and win for Congress will make it difficult for it to align with other parties in UP and other states to form a pre-poll alliance.
Only TDP and south-centric parties where Congress’s clout has eroded will see it as a potential partner.
In the big picture Congress is on a shaky ground. For regional parties strengthened Congress is much of a threat to their individual national ambitions. They favor a Congress on weak wicket where it would be forced in to support them becoming a junior partner.
PS: Winning using Freebies is bad for the States and country, it shows that Congress has no vision for the development and jobs and just returning the public money which they have received through various methods and cost has incurred in its collection.
The Patriots 